There is an in-betweener audience out there of 5E refugees not going to OSR games but to 5E-like games. Many have gone to OSR clones, like Dungeon Crawl Classics and Shadowdark. Many have moved on to new rule systems, like Pathfinder 2, Savage Pathfinder, Dragonbane, and other games.
There is a lot of buzz in this in-betweener space, and you see the excitement in games like MCDM RPG, Tales of the Valiant, and even Level Up Advanced 5E. The latter two are interesting and cover an economic group I am in.
I have a lot of 3rd party 5E books. What do I do with them?
That is my feeling; I spent money on many great 3rd party books and would like to use them. What do I do if D&D leaves a terrible taste in my mouth? Sell them? I need something rules-compatible, so I am stuck. Sticking in a broken and exploited to Hades 2014 version and a cash-grab 2024 (still broken, Tasha's) edition is not an option.
The old D&D market was so huge that the "not D&D" subset market is now huge and looking for alternatives. This group of pioneers will also find the "next hot thing" that everyone else jumps on the bandwagon of. The 2024 version will be significant, but the string of critical failures Wizards rolled in 2023 will haunt them until the 2027 "best by" date for the 5.5 version. Another thing is a lot of the old-timers were pissed, and that is a considerable percentage of DM's in heavy-user influencers who are very vocal.
I have already moved on.
I have two games I can use my old 5E books with, and they are mostly compatible. Better yet, they were defined by teams with goals and likes similar to my own. A5E's support for the pillars of play is fantastic and a fresh take on 5E meets OSR, along with the tight math of the game. ToV streamlining the game, making it new player-friendly, and eliminating exploits intrigues me.
The OSR will keep being what it is, but two new markets are forming in the in-betweener space of the not D&D and Open 5E movements. When people decry "the market is fragmenting," they complain about profits on an economy of scale. It used to be that if you wanted to make money in tabletop gaming, you had to make a 5E book.
These days, the audience is fragmented. It does not hurt Wizards as it does 3rd party publishers, who now need to make versions of a book for several games and hedge their bets. What I like about the Open 5E movement is it keeps the current market status quo, and you can still make 5E books. Most people who play "5X Edition" can use it, be it 2014, 2024, ToV, or A5E.
Kobold Press feels like the standard bearer in the Open 5E market.
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