Don't be Fooled

I am watching all the YouTubers talk about Hasbro losing a billion dollars in three months, and they are wildly speculating about this or that. This is a Wall Street brand. This will always be around, endlessly recycled under new management teams until it fails less.

You have to think about 5-year blocks with this sort of stuff. D&D has failed as a brand. It did not go mainstream after the pandemic. The hopes of it becoming a "lifestyle brand" are dead. The movie flopped. The media company they bought was sold for a fraction of its worth. They were taken to the cleaners by false hopes that D&D would become the next Marvel, and streaming services were the new gold rush.

So, we are in a transitory phase between owners and/or management teams. Yes, we will see billion-dollar write-offs and losses as the business transitions to the next stage. Old inventory will be cleared, and YouTube will latch onto that, saying it is the apocalypse. You will see mass sell-offs of all current books and products. The brand's licensing will increase tenfold, and we will probably see dozens of mobile games. Something has to make a profit, right?

Even if the parent company goes bankrupt, D&D will still be around with the same problems and issues. They won't let it fail and disappear. It will get sold, shuffled around, and get new owners. It is so big the changes potential new owners want won't be seen for years.

This is why I don't like brands this big. You get labeled "a consumer," and you aren't expected to just enjoy a game for what it is - the company expects you to be an unpaid shill and overreact like a "brand clown" to every bit of news they release. You even see this in playtest reactions on YouTube, like every bit of information presented is somehow "critical" and "important to your enjoyment of the game."

False hype. A codependent relationship that borders on self-abusive dependency. YouTube streamers can't let D&D "fail" since it would mean the end of many channels. Despite how negative they get for clicks and views, they all will be on board with 2024; no worries. This is the "anti-hype" cycle before a release, where 2024 "will be the worst ever" before release, and shortly after, "it surprised me, best ever!"

Every video game magazine in the 1990s did this with console releases every freaking time; it does not fool me.

And I saw the 2024 previews; they look like coffee table "history of D&D" books - too much art and very sparse content. While they say it isn't AI, some of the art still looks overly busy, so random, with no flow or whitespace visual confusion that AI art produces. Some of it is good. But there is way too much art; it feels like Wizards is trying to be Free League, and the per-page rules feel incredibly low. 5E is ten times more complicated than Year Zero; doing a sparse layout will be a nightmare for ease of use for 5E, and I doubt the books will be as complete as 2014.

It is an art book, not a game book.

The online character creator will be easier to play with than this bloated, overly fancy coffee table rule book (which is done on purpose). It feels more like an investor presentation than something I would play with.

Open 5E gives me an escape hatch from the stupidity. Just like the OSR did. I have 10 years of 5E books that will never "go bad" with Open 5E. I have been playing Level Up Advanced 5E drama-free for months. Tales of the Valiant will be my "OSE version" of 5E for many of my books less compatible with A5E. Still, they are both close enough to be cross-compatible - just like B/X.

I can play both ToV and A5E like I can play OSE, S&W, or Dragonslayer.

One is B/X, and the other is Open 5E.

And don't think Wizards won't abandon 5E someday; every media and entertainment company operates on one principle these days - don't let the past hamstring today's creators. Every media company acts this way, and we see this repeatedly in entertainment. There will be a day when Wizards won't be able to hire anyone who wants to work on 5E, and the new generation will "want to put their mark on it."

Wizards won't even have a say; Wall Street will step in, and some board chair will tell them, "Abandon the past. Let the new team make a new set of rules. This is the only way to speak to the new generation." Every movie and IP has this happen in Hollywood. D&D had three incompatible versions in 20 years and is not immune.

I doubt 5E lasts another 10 years as D&D.

The VTT may "patch the books out of existence" or even "establish a VTT Edition."

But D&D will be fine without us. The plans don't even include most older players anyway, and this decision to exclude older players was likely made years ago (to focus on the next generation). I can tell that by the nothing they do with their campaign worlds, novels, and characters. We went our separate ways, and I wish them well.

Just be careful of what YouTube says from day to day.

You will get a slice of one moment when you must think in 5 years in each direction. Keep perspective, but do what you feel is suitable for your enjoyment. Put yourself first.

You may choose to be on the 2024 hype train to be part of that crowd. Just know what you are getting into and the monetization coming your way. If you are okay with it, great - I wish you well. Some people like being in on the hype. I can't change that; just don't let a company take advantage of you when you put yourself in that position. They will.

Open 5E is really the only way forward for me. The books I invested in will maintain their value and entertainment. I won't have to rebuy them or buy them in VTT format. 2024 will begin the "war on physical media" for roleplaying. Open 5E fixes that too. Open 5E is cheaper for me in the long run, lets me enjoy my books, preserves my gaming investments, and has less drama.

Open 5E is the next OSR.

Millions of players will find a home here.

And that is a good thing.