With all the top talent leaving Wizards and D&D, either a new team is being brought in for a radical redesign, or D&D is being prepared to be sold. I feel the former is far more likely than the latter, with some mobile-game-focused design team being given a shot to turn D&D into the next Monopoly Go.
There is a point where "what you are doing" is no longer resonating with customers, and the IP moves farther down the corporate pachinko machine, shifting from "this is our pride and joy" to "make it make money." The team gets a lot less freedom to "be creative" and "true to the legacy" the lower the ball gets in the machine.
We are entering a phase where niche games emerge, excelling in one or two areas better than D&D, which attempts to please everyone. As a result, we are seeing large sections of the player base peel off and play other games. Some of these niche games go on to be massive hits, and our first two are Shadowdark and Daggerheart.
The MCDM RPG (Draw Steel) is coming for the mechanics crowd here in a little bit, and I suspect that will be the third harbinger of the D&D apocalypse. The PDF release for this is scheduled for next month, June 17, and it will go to the printers in August.
Daggerheart, and to a lesser extent, Shadowdark, are giving people a reason to leave D&D for good, migrate campaigns to, and change everything about their hobby. Daggerheart is the "escape hatch" for the live-play and storyteller crowds. Those who are more fans of Critical Role than D&D will flock here. I am happy for them; this is an evolution of that playstyle and crowd, and it provides them with a place where they will feel comfortable. D&D was never an excellent fit for that style of dramatic play, and this frees D&D up to play to its strengths, rather than pretending to be a storyteller game.
Shadowdark is the escape hatch for the dungeon crawler and old-school fans. Both of them together give plenty of reasons to leave D&D. Shadowdark is fantastic, the game is very concise and tight, distilling the experience down into pearls of wisdom rather than page after page of filler text that ends up telling you to "make it all up yourself" or "just use a published adventure" like D&D does.
If you genuinely love 5E, the system, you should be with an Open 5E version by now. If you're still sticking with D&D, then you're more a fan of the IP than the game, or you just don't want to pay money again for something that you already have and works, and I don't blame you for that. Perhaps your characters are all locked up in some D&D-only VTT, and changing would be too hard. Maybe you don't care about your D&D games that much to even consider switching, and you are waiting for the next big thing to come along.
Many are sticking with D&D 2014, so 2024 will likely never recover or sell as well. 2024 had its chance on release, and it did not sell as well as hoped. There is not going to be a "second wind" like D&D 2014 had in the Pandemic, since Critical Role has moved on to its own game. Hoping for a live play show to save D&D 2024 now is like living in 2020. D&D 6E is far closer than we think, especially with all these team changes at Wizards.
My bet is it will be advertised as a "hybrid, always connected" D&D experience, where you can "bring D&D on the go, and always be playing." I can see it now, "You never have to leave the D&D world!" Don't laugh at me. I have been in corporate boardrooms. The above statements look really good on the whiteboard. These statements will drive teams and goals, and drive millions of dollars in investments.
Tales of the Valiant is my "Long Term Support" (LTS) version of 5E, and I put all my other variants in storage, including D&D 2014. I gave up Level Up A5E, something I liked for its design, for ToV, since ToV has far better support in their store and on regular Kickstarter projects. There is a point where you need to throw in with the strongest version and patch in the changes you liked from other variants.
My 2014 D&D and A5E books are in my closet. I am happier focusing solely on Kobold Press releases, as well as my "best of the best" third-party 5E books. My 5E library is shrinking, but I am much happier and I feel the need to play again.
There is still a crowd of us who like the 5E mechanics and have libraries of 2014 books to support. ToV will be the LTS game for those of us who choose to still play with 2014 and want to see that supported for the next 10-20 years. Then again, 5E as a game may trail off very soon (like D&D 3.5E did), with the release of these huge competitors, and the eventual release of 6E.
MCDM RPG (Draw Steel) is also on the cusp of release, and that crowdfunding was huge. We are about to see another major player drop.
The weakness of the 2024 D&D release means those who want the throne shall rise. We are witnessing the fracturing of the current D&D player base into four distinct factions: those focused on storytelling, dungeon crawling, mechanics, and long-term support. There will always be the D&D 2024 die-hards, those who are deeply invested in the settings and IP, but many who came in for other reasons are beginning to move to games that better fit their interests than a "do it all" game.
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