We are clearly in the end-game phase of 5E, but the game itself is so massive that I don't think anyone will notice it. I think 5E could die, continue for 5 years, be replaced by 6E, and nobody (in the general public or outside of third-party publishers) would even know there was a market crash and downturn.
Is D&D dead?
It doesn't matter.
Besides, Wizards should be thanking the OSR crowd for keeping the original spirit of the hobby alive, and keeping the game's relevance and aura as a "hardcore dungeon game." These days, 5E by itself isn't a hardcore dungeon game; it is more of a fantasy lifestyle simulator with a specific set of classes and builds that borrow heavily from pop culture, movies, anime, and other sources. D&D is not an original game, and it relies (too heavily) on pop culture for relevance, when the game itself should be the source of that relevance it pretends to have.
The OSR will keep "D&D alive" by default. D&D will show up every five years with a new edition, expect a seat at the table, and get it because they are the rich kid who plays, and we all put up with them, even though they are a dork.
"The cool kids are all playing this other game!"
That is something that never changes about D&D, either. Yes, there is always D&D, but there's always the cool game everyone is playing instead, be it GURPS, Rifts, Vampire, Champions, Rolemaster, or any number of other "cool kid" games that have come and gone over the years. Today it's Daggerheart, Draw Steel, Warhammer (again), or any number of other fantasy alternative hangers-on.
I feel the current look-and-feel of D&D, Pathfinder, and most modern fantasy games is already dated. The modern people in fantasy cosplay, Supercuts hairstyles, AI-generated, and purple-hair pastiche are very early-2020s, and the culture is moving on from "Disney and Pixar tropes." People are tired of "real people trying to pretend they are anime characters," and all the hair dye, piercings, tattoos, and smug, smirking faces have gotten tiring.
These days, give me authentic medieval art, something cool, something different, something not made by AI, and that has a measure of skill and actual artistic knowledge involved. In an age of 100% AI, those who will stand out are those who can still "do it by hand."
AI is not the future; it is the death of the middle market. You will either have the skills to be noticed, or you will be replaced by a machine. If you want to be an artist, writer, or other creative, you'd better have something to say, or the low-skilled masses beneath you will swallow you in a mountain of slop.
And the irony is, those at the top will still use AI, but be smart enough to make the darn thing work instead of being a slop generator. It will be the same for D&D, all those middling adventure and module writers, even some game writers, you will all be replaced unless you have something to say and the high level of skill to actually say it. Forget the notion that AI makes up for skill; the only way it works is if you already have a high enough level of skill and commitment to make it work the way they advertise it to.
You need more skill to make AI work at a level where you will be successful with it. Learn a real creative skill, then use AI.
AI cannot compete with the self-made auteur, master of their craft. It is not happening.
But, D&D, in its current pop-culture, AI-generated form?
Dead, and it does not matter.
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