Part of me thinks the contracts are already signed. Not between Wizards and 3rd party content creators, who got crushed, but between Wizards and Hollywood. The movies, the streaming services, the TV shows, the pop culture phenomenon they want to push...the OGL isn't something we can push back on at this point; it is already dead.
Even if they backslide, I feel it will only delay the terms, and we will be right back to where 1.1 wanted everything after a year or two when everyone forgets.
TSR tried going Hollywood with D&D in the 1980s, and it failed.
The D&D movies of the 1990s failed. And TSR was notorious then because, guess what they were trying to do? Same thing today, chase Hollywood.
And here we are again, trying to capture lightning in a bottle.
I do not feel any streaming service, or movie company will drop big money on the D&D brand without a highly restrictive OGL to "keep the brand safe." Hollywood wants to avoid risk, and if a 3rd party supplement comes out that "tarnishes the brand," it not only screws D&D but hundreds or thousands of million-dollar investors into entertainment properties out of their money.
Imagine if a 3rd party supplement comes out that is a humorous "Kill all the Orcs!" adventure. And the module has you deciding if you should slaughter everyone in an orc village - and old-school players will know this since this sort of topic of "adventurous barbarism" was in many old-school modules. Now imagine if that hit the media and the stink a few people could cause...
...and the damage it would do to every movie released, in development, and every show on a streaming service. That is a lot of potential harm Wizards wanted control over.
In that scenario, I can't blame Wizards for doing what they did.
I don't condone or excuse it, and it really sucks, but we live in a crappy world where "it is what it is." I am also on the side of the small publishers and people working out their bedrooms, trying to side-hustle and make a dream become a reality. I can't play D&D anymore because of all the shattered dreams; if you can, go have fun, and I can't take that away from you. It is your personal choice and right.
What Wizards did was wrong but inevitable. But this is what "selling out" means and does to a community. And this is a community that put far too many eggs in one basket. Yes, we bear part of the blame, and this could have happened to any game that gets "too big" for the hobby. Let's say any TTRPG became a huge thing, a billion-dollar enterprise. I don't think it really would be much different.
Hollywood comes in, and we are all screwed.
Welcome to nerd-dom, where what we love and do lives in a fleeting moment, and we seek the unpopular and out-there games and subjects - just because we know the vultures of Hollywood will have reservations about ruining things for everyone.
And I also feel D&D is dead for most little people. You will no longer make a living off this game, and the dreams and concepts you can explore through roleplaying will be heavily corporatized and sanitized. I feel D&D is now the Simpsons, which used to be cool and fun, and now just drags on and on in an undead state to support the profit margins of Wall Street.
And the movies are already done, and the streaming service shows are ink-drying on paper.
The OGL changes were probably a precondition to these deals.
If they change the OGL, I feel all those deals will be in jeopardy. The best Wizards can do is delay the inevitable and "push the message" with a smile on their faces, and I think, at this point, the entire Wizards organization is powerless to change anything. And I feel if you are streaming D&D games professionally, watch out and get out early before they bring it all in-house. Personally, I am done with D&D, 5E, and things in that orbit.
You know who wins when it is a choice between the little people and the rich.
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