There exists a mythical audience for every product, with infinite size, longevity, depth, and mass-market appeal.
If only we could find it.
The trend of desperation marketing is hitting the tabletop hobby hard, and you can see this in inversion marketing in almost every game. The producers of the games start putting "the audience they want to see playing it" into the game's art and marketing, trying to seed the alternate universe and get it started with a little push.
There is nothing wrong with finding new audiences.
It is just that when you do this, you are screaming that your game is dying and that the numbers are not where you want them to be.
If things were working out, there would not be such a drastic change. This is Wall Street we are talking about here, and those who pretend to be like them in the smaller shops. You can hear the mom-and-pop game producers thinking, "Let's do what the market leaders are doing; that must be the way!" So the inversion marketing becomes a fad, failing games desperately searching for a new audience, which, in reality, is as common as finding a herd of unicorns. Nine times out of ten, all inversion marketing does is alienate the existing audience who liked horses.
And we are now in the "firing phase" where all those plans have failed. You see this across big tech now, and the tabletop hobby is typically 1-2 years behind that, where mass amounts of workers and creatives who promised Amazon, Microsoft, and other huge companies new audiences never found them. Billions of dollars were wasted chasing rainbows, and entire IPs and creative properties were destroyed due to audience rejection.
Those workers inevitably end up in the tabletop gaming space and try to sell those ideas here as the secret sauce to get paying unicorns in the door.
This isn't an anti-woke diatribe; it is just the people selling woke as an audience magnet oversold it way, way too hard, promised the moon, but delivered a pebble on the beach. I feel sorry for them. Wall Street will do as Wall Street does: fire everyone, forget they existed, hire a new batch of bright-eyed "rock-star" workers to ruin the dreams and healths of, and tell us to "forget all of that unicorn chasing just happened."
This is wish fulfillment by the product development team with no plan, money, or support to back it up. You can't just "wish for a new audience" by changing the art in the books; it requires ground-game level stuff like supporting reading programs, getting D&D starter fiction into schools through Scholastic, and supporting K-5 reading programs. If the next generation can't read, good luck selling your game to them.
We will get a few years of the old stuff still releasing before the new stuff, and the new workers will begin delivering, so there will be a 2-year glut of pipeline products to work through.
We will see the new direction here in a few years, and maybe the entire industry will "go back to basics," leading to an AD&D First Edition re-release, this time with nostalgia marketing, no new-age character options, chainmail bikinis, evil orcs, racial ability score modifiers, and traditional art and themes. "We always loved what this was!" will be the line from Wall Street.
They will sell you out for a dollar.
It should be well-known at this point.
Don't be delusional.
And we will get more retreads, like Dragonlance again being sold to us as something "new and exciting" when the last relaunch just a few years ago flopped so hard that hundred-dollar board games based on the setting ended up in dollar stores. Sorry, D&D, you will always be beholden to and ridden around by video-game and entertainment companies, and those BG3 characters will be on the front of so many books they will begin to look like cereal mascots. Hollywood is interested in Dragonlance (again), and this will be our next BG3, if the deals go through (most of which fail).
You live in a hit-driven space in media and entertainment.
This is not a nice place. Mostly, you fail, and only the 1% make enough money to survive.
Even if you do have a hit, unless you sell out hard and begin the follow-up on day one, you will ride that hit into the ground, and people will get as sick of it as they did hair metal in the 1990s. BG4 should have been released by now, and that is such a massive failure that heads should roll. Again, this is Wall Street we are talking about, the place in New York that resembles a crazy world where nothing makes sense except for the color green and the smell of money.
Even if BG4 made half as much as BG3, a half-billion dollars is still better than zero.
It would still be seen as a massive failure, since the #1 rule on Wall Street is, "You are only a success as long as you top the last thing." So, BG3 killed D&D, in a way, by setting expectations so high that it killed the entire IP, and no one could ever follow it up. Hasbro should have "sold Wizards up the financial pipe" at that point, given the billion-dollar hit, and flipped it for cash to a large investment group. Instead, they held on, and hubris killed the valuation. The iron is no longer hot. The moment is over.
D&D YouTube likes to point to the next D&D book and say, "D&D is back!" or "D&D is doomed!" Other culture YouTubers like to point to the art and content and scream about it as the reason it's failing.
It is not like that. Blind men and an elephant.
We are in a deeper, structural, cyclical problem with the entire hobby.
The problem is rooted in the cyclical nature of the entertainment market and the money it generates.
How I get through it is by going back to the classic games and remembering the good times, as any new investments in anything 5E or "new games" will just end up in drama, heartbreak, and disappointment. Even 3.5E is a fantasy heartbreaker at this point, since it is a dead game and unsupported. I hear about a new revision of GURPS, and I hope for the best, but I know the revision will be used as a wedge, as people will attack it for changing things too much. I hope it does well, but I do have a horrible feeling it will further divide the hobby. It is a great idea at a terrible time.
Why would I invite drama in the door when all I want is fun?
GURPS is still fun. First Edition, BX, and BXA are still amazing throwback games.
Many new games and games released in the last 10 years are failing me right now. I struggle to see a future for many of them, and their compatibility issues are rampant. Even inside 5E, compatibility with many 3rd-party books is terrible. I love Shadowdark, but I can get the same thing in any BX, BXA, or 1E game, with better cross-compatibility for third-party and community adventures.
I don't see the value in spending money on games.
More money spent does not equal more fun.